A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
