Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
